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Climate Change Strategy

The climate changes that are affecting the entire planet have forced the transition to a low-carbon economy, which is being implemented through international agreements, regulatory measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to the use of technological innovation

A2A took account of these changes in the context of its Strategic Plan 2021-2030 in order to make its financial and strategic planning resilient. In particular, to do this, a thorough analysis of the risks and business opportunities has been implemented, which integrates from the beginning the aspects related to climate change.

According to the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD), to which the Group has committed itself to align, A2A can be exposed to 2 types of risks:

  1. Physical climate risk: where the change of climate variables, such as temperature and/or precipitation, can cause economic and financial impacts unfavourable to the business. In particular, these risks may be chronic, (for example: a gradual and constant upward trend in average winter temperatures, which can lead to a reduction in the need for energy for heating and thus determine a decrease in volumes of heat and/or gas sales), or acute, such as an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of acute rainfall events, which can lead to a greater and more serious incidence of phenomena such as flooding or hydrogeological instability, with potential damage to assets. 
  2. Transition risk: related to a series of structural changes in the community, in response to increased sensitivity to climate change (e.g. changes in the lifestyle - more sustainable - of the community, or regulatory). For the Group the main effects are observed: 
  • in the increase in the price of commodities and in particular CO2 emission allowance (EUAs – EU Allowances), which could have an impact on the margins of thermoelectric plants
  • in the change in energy consumption, in favour of energy efficiency and electricity consumption and with the decrease in gas consumption

According to the logic of the TCFD, the following opportunities were also identified:

  • the services offered by A2A in the energy field including those of energy efficiency in the civil and industrial sector
  • climate change adaptation activities to increase the resilience of electricity networks and for the security of water supply
  • the development of sustainable finance, which will play an increasingly important role for the Group, with the possibility of obtaining financing at lower rates depending on the Group’s commitment to achieving defined sustainability objectives, measured with specific KPIs

 

The risks and opportunities analysis has been set according to a temporal dimension, considering the climatic, economic, energy and regulatory reference context (scenario). In this regard, three time horizons have been defined: 

  • short-term, corresponding to the current and next year
  • medium-term, corresponding to 5 years, until 2025
  • long-term, corresponding to 10 or more years, until 2030

To make it easier to read, a prospectus has been created (see. the table as an example) where the climate risks and opportunities are described - in detail - identified in accordance with the recommendations of the TCFD, the methodology and the ERM process of the Group. The following elements have been inserted for each category:

  • the line of business affected
  • the classification according to the "TCFD" categories
  • the time horizon over which the risk or opportunity may occur
  • the impact on the Group
  • the management strategy

Climate risks and opportunities for the A2A Group

Code 
Risk/
Opportunity

 
TCFD
 Classification

Risk/ 
Opportunity theme
Impact4
 and
probability5
Management approach
CC1

Physical Chronic


Time horizon
  
short term 

medium term

long term

Change in the precipitation regime
delle precipitazioni

 

Risk and opportunities related to changes in the availability of water resources at the Group's main hydroelectric plants. 

Impact 
Lower/higher volums and margins of hydroelectric production
Economic and financial risk

Economic and financial opportunity

Probability Possible

Development of analysis and engineering models to support the planning of hydroelectric plants, both shorts and medium term. 


Presence of hydroelectric plants 
with different characteristics in terms of exploitation of water resources that are well distributed throughout the Italian territory.       The Strategic Plan includes investments to optimize the use of the derived water resource for hydroelectric purpose (e.g. pumping)
Capex: about 20 M€

CC2

Transition
Policy and Legal


Time horizon

medium term

long term

Competition on water use

Risk of increasing the share of water that hydroelectric plants will be required to release to make it available for irrigation and drinking water uses. Risks of proliferation of third-parties initiatives for the exploitation of the water resource over which A2A has rights.

Impact
Lower volumes and margins of hydroelectric production

Economic and financial risk

 

Probability
Possible

Constant dialogue with the various stakeholders in order to reach agreements and enter into conventions to protect A2A's interests while respecting the needs of other stakeholders. The Strategic Plan includes investments to turbine the water before it is released for other uses and new mini-hydro plants.
Capex: about 20 M€

CC3 Transition
Policy and Legal


Time horizon

short term

medium term

long term

Emission allowances EUAs

Risks/opportunities related to changes in the price of emission allowances other than those assumed in the Strategic Plan

Impact
Lower/ higher margins of thermoelectric production

Economic and financial risk

Economic and financial opportunity

Probability
Remote

Management as part of the monitoring of changes in the in the price of energy commodities in accordance with the Energy Risk Policy.

The decarbonization process makes it possible to mitigate the Group's exposure to this risk over the long term.
 

4 For economic and financial risks and opportunities, the impact scales refer to impacts on EBITDA (downside for risks and upside per le opportunità):

  • low: less than 5 M€/a 
  • medium: between 5 M€/a and 10 M€/a 
  • high: more than 10 M€/a

5 Probability: <10% Remote; =>10%; =<50% Possible; > 50% Likely.

The ERM function then carried out a further in-depth analysis aimed at quantifying the impacts of climate risks and opportunities on the Group’s economic and financial results. These effects are measured in terms of the change in the Group's overall EBITDA forecast in the Strategic Plan:

  • Physical risks weather uncertainties will affect the Group's overall EBITDA as forecast in the Strategic Plan by between -1% and +0.2
  • For Transition risks and opportunities, the impact on the Group's total EBITDA projected in the Strategic Plan is estimated at between -0.5% and +0.4%

In summary, below is the representation - on the impact/probability heatmap - of the risks and opportunities described in the detailed tables.
 

 

CC1 Change in the precipitation regime R/O
CC2 Competition on water use R
CC3 Emission allowances R/O
CC4 Thermal energy demand for heating R
CC5 Energy efficiency systems O*
CC6 Efficiency of electricity distribution networks R/O
CC7 Scarcity of water for drinking water use R
CC8 Extreme weather phenomena R
CC9 Green Financing Framework O

LEGENDA

PROBABILITY
1 = Remote (less than 10%)
2 = Possibile (between 10% and 50%)
3 = Likely (more than 50%)
IMPACT 
1 = Low
2 = Medium
3 = High

IMPACT TYPE
Economic and financial impact
Reputational impact

For economic and financial risks and opportunities, the impact scales refer to impacts on EBITDA
-downside for risks and upside for opportunities.
(low impact: less than 5 M€/a; medium impact: between 5 M€/a and 10 M€/a; high impact: more than 10 M€/a).
*CC5 opportunity margins already included in the Strategic Plan

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